Belated Thoughts on the Flames and the Deadline: A Look in Retrospect

On the day after the trade deadline, Jarome Iginla scored four points and Miikka Kiprusoff made 27 saves for his second straight shutout, and the Flames vaulted into 5^th place in the West. Had you told me in mid-December that this would be the result of the March 1^st matchup in St. Louis, I would have told you were more full of crap than the Twitter huckster NHLSourcesSay. At that time, the pessimistic fans (although I still will defend the alternate description of “rational”) were speculating about the potential worth of Iginla, Kiprusoff, and virtually every other asset on the Flames, looking to go down the same painful rebuilding road that three out of the six Canadian teams are currently mired in. I was fully behind the idea, even though I knew that the Flames would never actually do it. (Robert Cleave pointed out early that the full-scale dynamiting of a team is never undertaken by choice, and never with a team reasonably close to the playoffs and still relatively financially healthy, as the Flames were.) The single happiest day of the season so far for me still remains December 28^th, the day we were finally freed from the curmudgeonly, obsolete, condescending and evidently dour reign of Darryl Sutter. And, even with the Flames’ marvelous comeback from the dead, it still most likely will be. Although it gets harder with each win to deny the Flames’ chances of actually making the playoffs, it’s still not a radically different team from the last few first round losses. And yet I don’t have a problem with that this year. It would be easy for the most cynical (a group I place myself in still) to call this yet another mirage for the fans, and/or an unintentionally wasted opportunity for management, but after seeing the results of this year’s trade deadline, and being unable to deny myself enjoyment out of this resurgence, I can honestly say I can’t see a reason for any Flames fan to complain right now.

Three weeks ago, the primary discussion in the weekly Calgary Herald Insider chat was Curtis Glencross. Many fans, including myself, had seen the high returns on Kris Versteeg and Chris Kelly, and saw no reason the Flames couldn’t get something similar. I mostly agreed, but I did wonder how many contending teams would actually give up a 1^st rounder, even if it was indisputable that Glencross was worth that in an even market. Of course, I figured the Flames would not actually trade a major roster player, because Jay Feaster, unlike his predecessor seems to speak honestly in public. After seeing the way the market unfolded the rest of the way, though, he probably made the right call in any case. The non-trade of Clarke MacArthur tells me all I need to know. Previously it had been reported by Darren Dreger that MacArthur could fetch a comparable return to Versteeg, a proposition difficult for the Leafs to turn down, even given the forward’s unexpected career season. Arguably, MacArthur was worth more than Glencross, given that he is a pending RFA as opposed to UFA, and he was putting up more points this year. The Leafs were also in a more likely selling position, despite Brian Burke’s insistence his team still has a shot at making the playoffs. And yet he stayed. It was reported by Dreger that Glencross’ contract negotiations had hit a snag – apparently he was hoping for a 4-5 year deal and thus forgot that Darryl is no longer GM. The debate over whether Glencross is actually worth committing a $3M +, multi-year cap hit can wait until the offseason, but I don’t think the Flames will regret not trading him.

Jarome Iginla was also involved in trade speculation (much of which was incorrectly reported as rumors) for much of the first half of the season. Although I have never believed the Flames would actually trade him, it’s worth revisiting here for hypothetical purposes. Again, the market seems to tell me that this deadline wouldn’t have been the time anyway. The Los Angeles Kings, who I have always felt would have been the perfect hypothetical fit, focused their attention northward instead, and settled for Dustin Penner after passing on the high price for Ales Hemsky. The Kings were not the only team interested in Hemsky, but the Oilers, a team deeper into rebuilding than even a hypothetical 2011 lottery Flames team would have been, rightfully felt under no pressure to move him, at least immediately, and thus had leverage. If the Oilers couldn’t get the right package for Hemsky, a relatively cheap player with another year left on his contract and no NTC, with several teams expressing serious interest, while rightfully demanding a high price, how could the Flames have done so for Iginla, when Iginla is $3M more expensive, has more years, and an NTC? An Iginla trade was never going to happen even if the Flames bottomed out, but it’s now interesting to note that it was probably never there to start with.

Jay Feaster stayed true to his word this deadline, trading no players off his roster and sacrificing no valuable assets. It’s refreshing to have a GM who we can seemingly trust based on his word, for better or worse, after eight years of condescension and secrecy from the so-called Jolly Rancher. And while there is still reason to not fully be on the “In Jay We Trust” bandwagon long term – even though it seems a certainty at this point he’ll get the Acting tag removed – it’s impossible to complain so far. It seems undeniable that the effect he has had on the mood in Calgary is no small part in their comeback. And he has said all the right things, gently repudiating the mistakes of the Sutter era while not disparaging his current roster. I think it is fair and not coldly sobering to suggest that the end result of this season is likely yet another 1^st round loss (it will depend, as it always has, on the matchup). But unlike previous years, this knowledge should not merely result in frustration and hand wringing. The remaining demons of the Sutter era have still yet to be expelled, but at least the team is entertaining for the moment, and no layers of despair and bleakness have been added (this deadline day may have been the most boring in 10 years, but at least it didn’t result in me loudly cursing in public as it did last year when the Steve Staios trade broke). Most importantly, though, I really don’t see how Jay Feaster could have done anything differently. All he has to do is keep on doing whatever it is he has been doing, and Flames fans can sit back and enjoy the rest of the season.

Some other belated deadline thoughts. Everybody should have known that the day itself would be boring – the flurry of trades in the weeks prior showed that GMs could not care less about TSN’s ratings – but I was still surprised at just how quiet it was. Elliotte Friedman explained much of it: one of the main reasons was because GMs are apparently somewhat reluctant to add dodgy contracts past 2012, since the CBA expires then. Nothing was more emblematic of the comical overestimation of the day than the Marty Reasoner non-story. Suddenly hyped up as the final fourth-line piece to complete the Canucks a few days before the deadline, the rumors persisted up until the final hour, despite multiple reports that Dale Tallon would not trade him that far away, out of respect for Reasoner and his wife expecting a child soon. He ended up staying in Florida. It was shameful for the media to buy into that rumor continually, but not as bad as how people fell for the fake Nick Kypreos reporting Dustin Penner to Montreal. (I fell for this one too, but only because I kept forgetting to actually follow the real Kypreos. Although, I have to give some credit to the faker, because the trade he faked – Penner for Jarred Tinordi and a 1^st – seems not far off from what a hypothetical Penner-to-Montreal trade would have been, given what LA gave up.) I didn’t understand the Niclas Bergfors trade for Atlanta, but it was a reminder of Dale Tallon’s proven specialty in blowing up sad franchises, even if Bergfors is a disappointment. Going back to the Flames, Jay Feaster admitted he was interested in Chris Higgins, but was reluctant because of Higgins’ injury. That’s a good non-move, even if it benefits the Canucks, and demonstrates a key difference between him and Darryl. I heard lots of praise for the Capitals, but I’m pretty sure I’ve heard them declared the winners of at least the past three deadlines, with no results so far. (I say good job by Lou on Arnott, getting back pretty much what he gave up in the first place in somewhat difficult circumstances). On Brad Richards, I understand the rationale behind not trading him, but I have a feeling it will prove to be the wrong move for Dallas. I say this for no other reason than I have not been at all impressed with Joe Nieuwendyk as a GM. If the Stars end up with a deep-pocketed owner and re-sign Richards, I’ll take it back. Finally, although Monday was a snoozefest by deadline day standards, this was the most exciting trade SEASON in many years. I would be surprised if the spirit didn’t continue in the offseason, because this year’s UFA class is very weak.

~SKR

Flames Post-Deadline Report: WTF?

The Flames couldn’t have been expected to make blockbusters necessarily, having already made the two biggest trades of the year a month earlier. However, it was fair to at least expect some additional tinkering by Darryl Sutter. He had a large surplus of forwards (albeit, mostly mediocre ones). The team itself was facing a very tight playoff race, with a sense of urgency still remaining not only to make the playoffs but make a significant run. What Darryl did, however, was simply three incomprehensible moves that appear to me to be, at best, lateral moves that won’t really improve the team. At worst, they could actually damage them, both in the short and long term.

The first trade, Curtis McElhinney for Vesa Toskala, I see as a pure lateral move which, worst case scenario, could cause the Flames to miss the playoffs. I will admit that, of the three trades, this trade is the only one which really makes any kind of twisted “sense”. Miikka Kiprusoff’s chronic burnout due to the lack of a good backup goalie has been an issue for the last three years, and remains the single most likely thing to kill the Flames’ season. And McElhinney clearly was not a viable backup goaltender. They traded McElhinney, with a year remaining on his contract, for Toskala, a $4M pending UFA who has been maybe the worst goaltender of the last two years who started a significant number of games. I have never been a Toskala fan. Darryl Sutter, in his post-deadline press conference, said that Toskala was “a player [he] was familiar with.” But clearly, the Toskala Darryl had in San Jose is nowhere close to the player he just acquired.

I really think he only trades for a rental goalie that expensive if he intends to play him significantly down the stretch to attempt to take pressure off Kiprusoff. Kipper is on pace for 73 starts, which is about 10 too many. But as I noted in my pre-deadline preview blog, even if the Flames acquired a decent backup (which Toskala is highly questionable as, even) how many times could you realistically play him in March and April, while taking significant enough pressure off Kiprusoff? Looking at the schedule, the Flames only have one back-to-back left: March 14th and 15th at Vancouver and at home against Detroit. They also only play two teams – two – currently more than four points out of a playoff spot (Minnesota three times – including tonight’s home game, and a road game against the Islanders). With 20 games remaining, Kiprusoff essentially has to split starts with Toskala in order to reach a more reasonable workload for the season (Kipper has played in 55 games so far and starts tonight against the Wild). But looking at the schedule, I only see these games as potential Toskala starts: the final game of the season at Vancouver (but only if the Flames have already clinched a playoff spot), March 25th against the Islanders, March 21st against the Wild, MAYBE March 14th against the Canucks (only because it is the first half of a back-to-back, with the second game against Detroit, sure to be a four-point game for the Flames.) That’s only four games, max, less than half of what it would take to give Kiprusoff a reasonable workload. In my opinion, putting Toskala in any other games could prove fatal to the Flames’ playoff chances, and it’s dangerous enough starting him in most of the games I listed. Maybe I’d be more optimistic about this trade if the Flames had done it earlier in the year, when there were more opportunities to actually play a backup goalie, but that doesn’t appear to be the case now.

The second deal, Dustin Boyd to Nashville for a 4th rounder, is one I can’t say makes any sense. The Flames did have an excess of forwards, but they were under no obligation to move bodies, because after the trade deadline teams are allowed to exceed the 23-man roster limit as long as they’re under the cap. Boyd may not have met the Flames’ expectations so far, but he was a pending RFA who the Flames could have dealt later if they really felt like it. Right now, though, I don’t think should have been the time to give up on him, especially for a piddling 4th rounder.

By far the trade I was most outraged at, however, was Sutter’s final deal, acquiring Steve freaking Staios from the Oilers for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd round pick. Even if the Flames weren’t fulfilling an apocalyptic scenario by trading with the Oilers, this would be an absolutely terrible and nonsensical deal. The acquisition of Staios continues Sutter’s long tradition of trading 3rd round picks for terrible depth defenseman (David Hale in 2007 followed by Jim Vandermeer in 2008). By trading the 3rd (the Flames’ choice of 2010 or 2011, I’m guessing it will be 2011) the Flames now only have three top-90 picks the next two years. This year, they do not have a pick until the third round, and in 2011 they do not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. In addition, I don’t know how Staios is preferable to Johnson. By far the most troubling aspect of adding Staios, though, is the fact that the Flames are now adding his $2.7M cap hit to next year’s payroll. It’s essentially the equivalent of re-adding Jim Vandermeer’s old nightmarish $2.3M hit, only even more expensive. And I doubt Sutter can pull off a miraculous salary dump of Staios like he did with Vandermeer.

Ever since Darryl Sutter bulked up on defense last summer at the clear expense of his offense, I have wondered what exactly his long term plan is. With the Dion Phaneuf and Olli Jokinen deals, it appeared he was trying to shake things up while still somewhat trying to win now, but the team as it looks on paper was still highly questionable going into the deadline. Now, it really does not look much different. It almost sometimes seems as if Sutter does not actually have a plan, instead he just aims to make the playoffs and see what happens, regardless of how good the team actually looks. The trade for Vesa Toskala looks like at best a lateral move, and at worst something that could cost them a playoff spot. The Boyd and Staios trades, however, just look like something that could actually be more harmful than anything.

~SKR

(More trade deadline thoughts: I loved all of the Capitals’ moves. It seems to me like maybe the only thing that could stop them is if their goaltending falters, just like the Blackhawks….Oilers fans should be quite happy with the return for Staios, but I did not like their Vishnovsky-for-Whitney trade. Lateral move at best, big downgrade at worst…can someone explain the Wolski trade from the Avs’ perspective? That one kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t get that one for them…quite bizarre to see the Coyotes being so aggressive. I’m sure Gary Bettman was smiling and nodding as they made their moves…the Ducks trading for Joey Macdonald could be seen as a mark of how little faith they have in Curtis McElhinney. Poor Curtis, the Flames never should have put him in a backup position…finally, I did not even know Andy Delmore was still a professional hockey player, but the Flames capped off the day by trading Riley Armstrong for him.)

Olympic Thoughts | The Flames at the Deadline

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I originally planned to post a general post-gold-medal game, pre-deadline blog this afternoon. However, though I expected an epic game, I had no idea just how epic. I genuinely was not expecting Sidney Crosby and Jarome Iginla to give Canada a truly generational hockey moment.

The goal will be discussed for years; it instantly joined the pantheon of legendary moments in Canadian hockey (arguably, Canadian history in general). I don’t know if I can put an original spin on this moment. It will be discussed and reminisced upon for years to come. I don’t have a great “where-were-you” story; I watched the entire game in my living room. But it was the most I’ve ever celebrated at a sporting event, and though this may be seen as corny or generic, I soon realized just how special a moment it was. To my generation (I was born in 1990), Crosby’s goal is our Henderson moment. I can’t fathom another international hockey moment in my lifetime being bigger than it. As Bob McKenzie noted, the 2002 Salt Lake City win was also a huge moment, but it wasn’t nearly as dramatic.

The ending of the game reminded me a lot of the ending of the Calgary-Vancouver Game 7 from 2004. A last minute tying goal which seemingly sucked the entire life out of the winning team’s fanbase (of course, the key difference is that the Game 7 was played in Vancouver, so the tying goal had the opposite effect it had on the mostly Canadian fans in the seats this time. My point is, I felt exactly the same as a Canadian fan when Parise scored as I did as a Flames fan when Matt Cooke scored with 5 seconds left in 2004.) On both occasions, when the tying goal went in, I thought the game was lost (especially in Canada’s case since they had basically been trying not to lose rather than going for the kill for the entire third period). But anything can happen in overtime, and Team Canada pulled out the win just as the Flames did. And just as Jarome Iginla played a pivotal role in that Game 7, he did in this game, setting up Crosby for the goal (sadly, Iginla’s role may be overlooked by some). And now Iginla has to go back to Calgary and downgrade from playing with Sidney back to playing with Matt Stajan. And that’s a great segue for me to shift into the Flames part of my blog.

The Olympics were preceded by eight years of hype that sometimes felt like twenty. And now they’re over after two weeks that felt like half that. The NHL’s absence has felt like an offseason, however. As usual, my outlook on the Flames is not great heading into the stretch run. That can make up its own separate blog, but now is a time to focus on the trade deadline and what it means for the Flames.

Simple logic dictates that the Flames have to move a few bodies soon. They have 24 roster players, all on one way deals, and this doesn’t include Mikael Backlund, who was sent down for the Olympic break but who I have heard will be recalled. Hence, at least one player must be removed, with Rene Bourque and Craig Conroy due to return from injured reserve. Darryl Sutter has said that he is happy with the look of his forwards and probably done dealing, but how seriously can his comments be taken after his angry denials that Dion Phaneuf was on the block?

Of these 25 players, 15 are forwards, and 11 are wingers – 3 excess wingers. I think something is in the works a bit more complicated than, say, Brian McGrattan being waived and one other player being traded for a pick. David Moss, in the midst of a quite disappointing season and with two more years on his deal, could be dealt. The inconsistent Nigel Dawes seems a good candidate as well. Another idea is Dustin Boyd, though he’s not a winger. The Flames agreed to give him a one way deal in exchange for a one year contract, which meant they were essentially challenging him to prove himself. He is a pending UFA now, but is still young and could be a decent piece. A more radical idea is still re-flipping Ales Kotalik, but it seems unlikely to me. Ever since the baffling trade of Olli Jokinen’s expiring contract and Brandon Prust for Kotalik and Chris Higgins (and Kotalik’s contract), Flames fans have proposed the idea that Kotalik may be flipped in another deal. Part of this has revolved around the fact that the Flames were supposedly on Kotalik’s three-team limited no-trade clause. (I’d like to note two counterpoints to this, however. First, Darren Dreger said that the trade was delayed not because of Kotalik’s NTC but apparently something from Calgary’s end. Second, if there really was another team Darryl Sutter promised Kotalik he would be traded to, wouldn’t they have been involved immediately? Unless, of course, they couldn’t absorb Kotalik’s salary until the trade deadline, but this sort of delayed 3-team trade is unprecedented.) I wouldn’t be that surprised either way, whether or not Kotalik is still a Flame come March 4^th. However, from day one I have been mystified as to how he fits into the system here, especially given his contract. (I will say this in his defense – he has added a new dimension to the powerplay, which hasn’t looked quite so abysmal since his arrival.) Regardless of what happens with Kotalik, though, it’s apparent to me that Darryl is not done dealing.

I’ll be back after the trade deadline analyzing whatever moves, if any, the Flames made and determining their outlook heading into the stretch run. In the meantime, here’s to a truly unforgettable Olympics and hopefully another exciting trade deadline.

~SKR

(Addendum: I also wouldn’t be very surprised if Darryl indeed simply did something like waiving McGrattan and demoting Backlund, or trading another player for a non-roster player. I consider this a mark of my generally low faith in the man, which has been at an all-time low since the Kotalik trade.)