Even the most delusional of Flames fans have to have given up by now. Even if the Flames managed to win all six of their remaining games, which the Flames have given no reason to believe they would be able to, they would still only have a 70% chance of making the playoffs (unlike Eklund, I will cite SportsClubStats.com for these numbers). The only thing Flames fans can look forward to is an offseason which will hopefully involve drastic change.
It is becoming harder and harder for me to find people willing to defend Darryl Sutter any more. His decision to sacrifice chances of re-signing Mike Cammalleri in order to get Olli Jokinen is looking like perhaps his biggest mistake, his later trade of Jokinen for the even-more-useless Ales Kotalik is looking just as bad as everyone anticipated it would, he has over $15M in cap space for next season – and some past that - tied up in bad contracts (Daymond Langkow, Kotalik, David Moss, Cory Sarich, and Steve Staios), he does not pick until the 3rd round of the draft this year, has few draft prospects coming down the pipe (nor does he have a 2nd or 3rd round pick in 2011; also don’t overlook that he traded Keith Aulie, said to be the Flames’ best defensive prospect), and last, but certainly not least, there is the ever-hanging question of whether he got enough for Dion Phaneuf. Personally, though I have been questioning Darryl for at least two years, I always kept a small amount of faith for the moves he did occasionally get right – but now I cannot defend the man any longer. The future looks bleak in every way for the Flames after five years of high-payroll mediocrity. The only question is, what to do now?
Rumours seem to be heating up – albeit, Allan Maki of the Globe and Mail is the only reporter I have seen report it – that Ken King and Darryl Sutter will be replaced by Bob Nicholson and Steve Yzerman, respectively. Has Stevie Y learned enough from Ken Holland and co. about the intricacies of managing a team in the salary cap era? Nobody knows; hiring a rookie GM like that is a risky business – just ask the Dallas Stars (Joe Nieuwendyk’s first move of firing Dave Tippett in favour of Marc Crawford has proven to be one of the worst moves of the past year.) I am not going to discuss the merits of Yzerman or any other GM. Predicting who a team will hire as their new GM is much more difficult than predicting new coaches – I remember nobody putting forward Mike Gillis’ name to replace Dave Nonis in Vancouver, and Gillis has done a terrific job. Focusing on what the team’s long term strategy should be is more important than speculating about who will be hired.
The essential dilemma that the Flames face with regards to their long term plan is: do we give building around the core one last kick at the can, or is it time to initiate a full rebuild for the third time in team history? The answer depends on how exactly you see the current team, how realistic it is to expect immediate and significant improvement, and how much of this disaster of a season was due to simply top players not producing.
I see the current team as decent at best, not great by any stretch; not good enough to be a serious threat to Vancouver (or hell, if they keep up their nice rebuilding pace, maybe even Colorado) for the division title any time in the foreseeable future. At very best they can sneak into the playoffs as a low seed and face a heavily-favoured opponent a few times. Sounds familiar? The team’s biggest flaw continues to be a lack of genuine offensive depth. Jarome Iginla remains the only player who would be a top line player on an elite team. Though there are some good second line pieces in Rene Bourque and Niklas Hagman, that’s just it – the Flames are expecting too much out of them. I think Matt Stajan also fits in this category: I just don’t see him as a true top line center. It would be excellent for the Flames if they could get rid of Daymond Langkow and put Stajan in his spot, but that would require the Flames to get an upgraded center as well. On the third and fourth lines, there are also some good pieces in Chris Higgins, Eric Nystrom, and Curtis Glencross but these obviously can’t compensate for the fact that Iginla is the only player on the top six who might be reasonably expected to put up 70 points. Scoring-by-committee has been tried and failed.
So what is the solution? Top line players don’t grow on trees, and arguably, Darryl Sutter missed his best opportunity to get one when he didn’t get one for Phaneuf. The two best pending unrestricted free agent forwards, aside from Ilya Kovalchuk (who will get at least $8M a season and have half the league bidding for him) are Patrick Marleau and Tomas Plekanec – assuming of course that they make it to July 1; neither appears at this point a lock to test free agency. However, Sutter would likely have to find a way to dump Sarich and Langkow before adding either player. After Sutter dumped Jim Vandermeer’s $2.3M at last year’s draft, and the Rangers dumped off Scott Gomez a few days later, I’ve come to believe any salary dump is possible; but for the success of your offseason to depend on two salary dumps is a highly risky strategy. Besides, how well could these players be relied on to finally fix the team? I speak mainly of Marleau here, as I have seen the “dump Sarich and Langkow and sign Marleau” plan proposed by many optimistic Flames fans. Marleau is a goal-scoring center rather than the playmaker the team has seemed to need more; this incompatibility is one of the reasons Olli Jokinen failed in Calgary. Not to say Marleau is Jokinen, he is much, much better. However, Marleau also has the following things against him: he has put up a career year playing with Joe Thornton and Dany Heatley in a contract year; he is heading into his 30s; and perhaps most importantly, up until this year he was the captain of the chronically choking Sharks. If the Sharks fall apart again this year, and Marleau can be definitively blamed, perhaps teams should be a bit less aggressive in targeting him July 1. This goes especially for the Flames, considering one of the main problems in Calgary seems to be a casual culture where not enough players are committed to winning. And that brings me to my next point.
Of course, if the Flames cannot improve the team in the immediate future, there are only two options: continue to try and make the playoffs with the current weak on paper (and practice) roster, or embark on a full rebuild. I cannot help but see the second as the more viable long term option. I have used the word “rebuild” liberally in my previous post-mortem blogs; I am embarrassed by my misuse of the term in those overzealous blogs. But this time I swear I mean it: blowing up the team may really be the only option. I will maintain my position I have had whenever considering the possibility: if the Flames really do decide to start from scratch (I am not saying that it is actually going to happen; I don’t expect it to, for reasons I’ll elaborate on later), the rebuild either starts or ends with Jarome Iginla; he will either be the first or last to go.
The idea of trading Iggy has gained steam as the Flames have melted down over the months. The most vehement opposition comes from people who have a deep loyalty to Iginla, the face of the Flames franchise both on and off the ice; a national hero for both of Team Canada’s Olympic gold-winning teams this decade; the Flames’ all-time points and goals leader. But I want to maintain when I advocate this position: it is absolutely NOTHING personal against Iginla. It is a business decision that has the potential for immense mutual benefits for both Iginla and the Flames. The way I see it, Iginla’s opportunity to win a Cup with the Flames has come and passed. Ideally I would want him to stay a Flame for life, but if he is, he will probably just be one of the many great players whose legacies were tainted, perhaps unfairly, by the stigma of never winning a championship. Iginla would hardly be the first, nor would he be the last superstar whose career with his signature team ended out of both desire to give him a chance at a championship and a need for that team to start over. Rather than being a Ryan Smyth trade, this would be a Ray Bourque trade. Of course, neither of those trades actually worked out for Boston or Edmonton. But on the other hand, remember Nieuwendyk for Iginla? Fleury for Regehr? Those two trades were done due to pending fleeing via free agency, but the idea is the same. Don’t get me wrong, though. If the Flames traded Iginla, it would be the single most painful experience as a Flames fan I have experienced. Yet if they did it to fast track a rebuild, it would be completely understandable; the trade would be a scarring experience, but one which, if done properly, would result in considerably more hope than just revolving the team again and again around Iginla as he ages even more each passing year. Of course, if Iginla went, few players would be safe. It’s just something that needs to be at least considered.
Admittedly this is all purely hypothetical at this point. The only first step I am certain must be taken is the firing of Darryl Sutter, but I am anything but certain it will actually happen. I fear that the Flames owners, mindful of the difference in profits even two playoff games a year brings, and remembering the near-death experience that was the Flames’ last rebuild in 1996-2003, will not have the stones to finally place accountability on the franchise. Aside from the enormous drop in revenue that rebuilding brings, the Flames are also aiming to have a new arena built this decade, and the already-arduous process of getting taxpayer money to help pay for it would be much more difficult with a losing team.
In the past year, the Flames have traded away much of their draft picks at a generally unprecedented rate and spent as much money as any team wishing to contend. And yet, Darryl Sutter’s risky strategies have actually made the team worse. After four years of first round losses that can only be described as high-priced mediocrity, the Flames are being forced to confront their own static state now that they have finally run out of luck. The time seems to have come for drastic change in some way, whether it is merely getting the right front office in place, or that combined with a rebuild.
~SKR
(Addendum: I wrote the bulk of this blog yesterday, after the Flames’ miserable, heartless 5-0 shutout at the hands of the Bruins – which came after I had written them off after their collapse against the Islanders. In my eyes, today’s win over the Capitals is merely a form of torture – the team teasing the fans one last time before a final, irrefutable death. I also question taking it as an impressive win, considering that the game meant little to the Capitals, who seem to be saving energy for the playoffs – they need just one win to clinch the Eastern Conference anyway, if it means anything to them, and New Jersey isn’t a serious threat to that pennant. As well, Jose Theodore sure helped the Flames win. In any case, the Flames next four games are against the Coyotes, Blackhawks, Sharks, and Avalanche, and if they somehow won all of those games, and the remaining two as well, to say nothing of the Avalanche and their schedule, it would be possibly one of the most improbable achievements in pro sports this year.)
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Flames Post-Deadline Report: WTF?
The Flames couldn’t have been expected to make blockbusters necessarily, having already made the two biggest trades of the year a month earlier. However, it was fair to at least expect some additional tinkering by Darryl Sutter. He had a large surplus of forwards (albeit, mostly mediocre ones). The team itself was facing a very tight playoff race, with a sense of urgency still remaining not only to make the playoffs but make a significant run. What Darryl did, however, was simply three incomprehensible moves that appear to me to be, at best, lateral moves that won’t really improve the team. At worst, they could actually damage them, both in the short and long term.
The first trade, Curtis McElhinney for Vesa Toskala, I see as a pure lateral move which, worst case scenario, could cause the Flames to miss the playoffs. I will admit that, of the three trades, this trade is the only one which really makes any kind of twisted “sense”. Miikka Kiprusoff’s chronic burnout due to the lack of a good backup goalie has been an issue for the last three years, and remains the single most likely thing to kill the Flames’ season. And McElhinney clearly was not a viable backup goaltender. They traded McElhinney, with a year remaining on his contract, for Toskala, a $4M pending UFA who has been maybe the worst goaltender of the last two years who started a significant number of games. I have never been a Toskala fan. Darryl Sutter, in his post-deadline press conference, said that Toskala was “a player [he] was familiar with.” But clearly, the Toskala Darryl had in San Jose is nowhere close to the player he just acquired.
I really think he only trades for a rental goalie that expensive if he intends to play him significantly down the stretch to attempt to take pressure off Kiprusoff. Kipper is on pace for 73 starts, which is about 10 too many. But as I noted in my pre-deadline preview blog, even if the Flames acquired a decent backup (which Toskala is highly questionable as, even) how many times could you realistically play him in March and April, while taking significant enough pressure off Kiprusoff? Looking at the schedule, the Flames only have one back-to-back left: March 14th and 15th at Vancouver and at home against Detroit. They also only play two teams – two – currently more than four points out of a playoff spot (Minnesota three times – including tonight’s home game, and a road game against the Islanders). With 20 games remaining, Kiprusoff essentially has to split starts with Toskala in order to reach a more reasonable workload for the season (Kipper has played in 55 games so far and starts tonight against the Wild). But looking at the schedule, I only see these games as potential Toskala starts: the final game of the season at Vancouver (but only if the Flames have already clinched a playoff spot), March 25th against the Islanders, March 21st against the Wild, MAYBE March 14th against the Canucks (only because it is the first half of a back-to-back, with the second game against Detroit, sure to be a four-point game for the Flames.) That’s only four games, max, less than half of what it would take to give Kiprusoff a reasonable workload. In my opinion, putting Toskala in any other games could prove fatal to the Flames’ playoff chances, and it’s dangerous enough starting him in most of the games I listed. Maybe I’d be more optimistic about this trade if the Flames had done it earlier in the year, when there were more opportunities to actually play a backup goalie, but that doesn’t appear to be the case now.
The second deal, Dustin Boyd to Nashville for a 4th rounder, is one I can’t say makes any sense. The Flames did have an excess of forwards, but they were under no obligation to move bodies, because after the trade deadline teams are allowed to exceed the 23-man roster limit as long as they’re under the cap. Boyd may not have met the Flames’ expectations so far, but he was a pending RFA who the Flames could have dealt later if they really felt like it. Right now, though, I don’t think should have been the time to give up on him, especially for a piddling 4th rounder.
By far the trade I was most outraged at, however, was Sutter’s final deal, acquiring Steve freaking Staios from the Oilers for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd round pick. Even if the Flames weren’t fulfilling an apocalyptic scenario by trading with the Oilers, this would be an absolutely terrible and nonsensical deal. The acquisition of Staios continues Sutter’s long tradition of trading 3rd round picks for terrible depth defenseman (David Hale in 2007 followed by Jim Vandermeer in 2008). By trading the 3rd (the Flames’ choice of 2010 or 2011, I’m guessing it will be 2011) the Flames now only have three top-90 picks the next two years. This year, they do not have a pick until the third round, and in 2011 they do not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. In addition, I don’t know how Staios is preferable to Johnson. By far the most troubling aspect of adding Staios, though, is the fact that the Flames are now adding his $2.7M cap hit to next year’s payroll. It’s essentially the equivalent of re-adding Jim Vandermeer’s old nightmarish $2.3M hit, only even more expensive. And I doubt Sutter can pull off a miraculous salary dump of Staios like he did with Vandermeer.
Ever since Darryl Sutter bulked up on defense last summer at the clear expense of his offense, I have wondered what exactly his long term plan is. With the Dion Phaneuf and Olli Jokinen deals, it appeared he was trying to shake things up while still somewhat trying to win now, but the team as it looks on paper was still highly questionable going into the deadline. Now, it really does not look much different. It almost sometimes seems as if Sutter does not actually have a plan, instead he just aims to make the playoffs and see what happens, regardless of how good the team actually looks. The trade for Vesa Toskala looks like at best a lateral move, and at worst something that could cost them a playoff spot. The Boyd and Staios trades, however, just look like something that could actually be more harmful than anything.
~SKR
(More trade deadline thoughts: I loved all of the Capitals’ moves. It seems to me like maybe the only thing that could stop them is if their goaltending falters, just like the Blackhawks….Oilers fans should be quite happy with the return for Staios, but I did not like their Vishnovsky-for-Whitney trade. Lateral move at best, big downgrade at worst…can someone explain the Wolski trade from the Avs’ perspective? That one kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t get that one for them…quite bizarre to see the Coyotes being so aggressive. I’m sure Gary Bettman was smiling and nodding as they made their moves…the Ducks trading for Joey Macdonald could be seen as a mark of how little faith they have in Curtis McElhinney. Poor Curtis, the Flames never should have put him in a backup position…finally, I did not even know Andy Delmore was still a professional hockey player, but the Flames capped off the day by trading Riley Armstrong for him.)
The first trade, Curtis McElhinney for Vesa Toskala, I see as a pure lateral move which, worst case scenario, could cause the Flames to miss the playoffs. I will admit that, of the three trades, this trade is the only one which really makes any kind of twisted “sense”. Miikka Kiprusoff’s chronic burnout due to the lack of a good backup goalie has been an issue for the last three years, and remains the single most likely thing to kill the Flames’ season. And McElhinney clearly was not a viable backup goaltender. They traded McElhinney, with a year remaining on his contract, for Toskala, a $4M pending UFA who has been maybe the worst goaltender of the last two years who started a significant number of games. I have never been a Toskala fan. Darryl Sutter, in his post-deadline press conference, said that Toskala was “a player [he] was familiar with.” But clearly, the Toskala Darryl had in San Jose is nowhere close to the player he just acquired.
I really think he only trades for a rental goalie that expensive if he intends to play him significantly down the stretch to attempt to take pressure off Kiprusoff. Kipper is on pace for 73 starts, which is about 10 too many. But as I noted in my pre-deadline preview blog, even if the Flames acquired a decent backup (which Toskala is highly questionable as, even) how many times could you realistically play him in March and April, while taking significant enough pressure off Kiprusoff? Looking at the schedule, the Flames only have one back-to-back left: March 14th and 15th at Vancouver and at home against Detroit. They also only play two teams – two – currently more than four points out of a playoff spot (Minnesota three times – including tonight’s home game, and a road game against the Islanders). With 20 games remaining, Kiprusoff essentially has to split starts with Toskala in order to reach a more reasonable workload for the season (Kipper has played in 55 games so far and starts tonight against the Wild). But looking at the schedule, I only see these games as potential Toskala starts: the final game of the season at Vancouver (but only if the Flames have already clinched a playoff spot), March 25th against the Islanders, March 21st against the Wild, MAYBE March 14th against the Canucks (only because it is the first half of a back-to-back, with the second game against Detroit, sure to be a four-point game for the Flames.) That’s only four games, max, less than half of what it would take to give Kiprusoff a reasonable workload. In my opinion, putting Toskala in any other games could prove fatal to the Flames’ playoff chances, and it’s dangerous enough starting him in most of the games I listed. Maybe I’d be more optimistic about this trade if the Flames had done it earlier in the year, when there were more opportunities to actually play a backup goalie, but that doesn’t appear to be the case now.
The second deal, Dustin Boyd to Nashville for a 4th rounder, is one I can’t say makes any sense. The Flames did have an excess of forwards, but they were under no obligation to move bodies, because after the trade deadline teams are allowed to exceed the 23-man roster limit as long as they’re under the cap. Boyd may not have met the Flames’ expectations so far, but he was a pending RFA who the Flames could have dealt later if they really felt like it. Right now, though, I don’t think should have been the time to give up on him, especially for a piddling 4th rounder.
By far the trade I was most outraged at, however, was Sutter’s final deal, acquiring Steve freaking Staios from the Oilers for Aaron Johnson and a 3rd round pick. Even if the Flames weren’t fulfilling an apocalyptic scenario by trading with the Oilers, this would be an absolutely terrible and nonsensical deal. The acquisition of Staios continues Sutter’s long tradition of trading 3rd round picks for terrible depth defenseman (David Hale in 2007 followed by Jim Vandermeer in 2008). By trading the 3rd (the Flames’ choice of 2010 or 2011, I’m guessing it will be 2011) the Flames now only have three top-90 picks the next two years. This year, they do not have a pick until the third round, and in 2011 they do not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick. In addition, I don’t know how Staios is preferable to Johnson. By far the most troubling aspect of adding Staios, though, is the fact that the Flames are now adding his $2.7M cap hit to next year’s payroll. It’s essentially the equivalent of re-adding Jim Vandermeer’s old nightmarish $2.3M hit, only even more expensive. And I doubt Sutter can pull off a miraculous salary dump of Staios like he did with Vandermeer.
Ever since Darryl Sutter bulked up on defense last summer at the clear expense of his offense, I have wondered what exactly his long term plan is. With the Dion Phaneuf and Olli Jokinen deals, it appeared he was trying to shake things up while still somewhat trying to win now, but the team as it looks on paper was still highly questionable going into the deadline. Now, it really does not look much different. It almost sometimes seems as if Sutter does not actually have a plan, instead he just aims to make the playoffs and see what happens, regardless of how good the team actually looks. The trade for Vesa Toskala looks like at best a lateral move, and at worst something that could cost them a playoff spot. The Boyd and Staios trades, however, just look like something that could actually be more harmful than anything.
~SKR
(More trade deadline thoughts: I loved all of the Capitals’ moves. It seems to me like maybe the only thing that could stop them is if their goaltending falters, just like the Blackhawks….Oilers fans should be quite happy with the return for Staios, but I did not like their Vishnovsky-for-Whitney trade. Lateral move at best, big downgrade at worst…can someone explain the Wolski trade from the Avs’ perspective? That one kind of came out of nowhere and I don’t get that one for them…quite bizarre to see the Coyotes being so aggressive. I’m sure Gary Bettman was smiling and nodding as they made their moves…the Ducks trading for Joey Macdonald could be seen as a mark of how little faith they have in Curtis McElhinney. Poor Curtis, the Flames never should have put him in a backup position…finally, I did not even know Andy Delmore was still a professional hockey player, but the Flames capped off the day by trading Riley Armstrong for him.)
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